AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are currently 2 to 2 cents lower after settling Friday with 2 to 3 1/2 cent gains. December was 1 1/4 cent lower on the week. Rains forecast for this week could slow corn harvest in most of the WCB. This Friday at 11:00 a.m. will be the release of the Sept 1 Grain Stocks report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting The Friday Grain Stocks report to show 2.346 billion bushels. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated spec traders expanding their net short position another 15,194 contracts in corn futures and options. They had a net position of -134,606 contracts as of September 19. China sold 1.75 MMT of the 2.1 MMT of corn offered at their auction of state reserves on Friday.


Soybean futures are trading mostly a nickel lower this morning. They closed the Friday session mostly 9 to 13 1/2 cents higher. The Nov contract was up for the fifth consecutive week. Oct soy meal was up $6/ton, with nearby bean oil down 11 points. The USDA announced another private export sale of 190,000 MT of soybeans to Mexico for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. The total of all announcements for last week is 1.801 MMT for 17/18 and 120,000 MT for 18/19. CFTC data showed money managers flipping their net position in soybean futures and options by 18,155 contracts. Their position on Tuesday was reported at net long 13,747 contracts.


Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower this morning, with MPLS spring wheat only a penny lower. They ended last week with 1 to 3 cent losses in most CBT contracts, as KC was fractionally higher. MPLS was the strongest, up 10 1/2 in nearby Dec and 2.27% higher on the week. The USDA will release the Small Grains report this Friday, at 11:00 a.m. CDT. We will get a better idea of 2017 wheat production in that report, particularly spring wheat yields and harvested acres. The average trade estimate for spring wheat production is 380 million bushels in a Bloomberg survey, with September 1 wheat stocks at 2.203 billion bushels. Spec funds in Chicago wheat futures and options decreased their net short position by 4,177 contracts to a net position -79,658 as of last Tuesday. In KC wheat futures and options, they lowered their net long position by 616 contracts to 12,415 contracts.


Live cattle futures saw gains of up to $1.475 on Friday, with Oct 3.55% higher since last Friday. Feeder cattle futures were 22.5 to 80 cents in the green in most contracts on Friday, with Sep up 2.11% on the week. The CME feeder cattle index was up 33 at $151.44 on September 21. Wholesale beef prices were higher in the Friday afternoon report. Choice was 9 cents higher at $191.60, while select boxes were up 32 cents at $188.73. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 637,000 head, ~ 5,000 fewer than the previous week and 41,000 larger than the same week in 2016. There were cash sales of mostly $108 reported on Friday. Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report showed Sep 1 cattle on feed 3.64% larger than last year at 10.504 million head. August placements were 2.61% above last year, with August marketings 5.94% bigger than 2016. The Cold Storage report showed August beef stocks at 476.26 million pounds, close to last year and 10.29% larger than July.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished the Friday session with losses of 50 cents to $1.625. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/20 was 80 cents lower than the previous day at $61.12. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 34 cents lower at $72.70 in the Friday afternoon report. The national base hog carcass price was down 15 cents in the PM report at $48.70. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter hit 2,501,000 head, 69,000 head larger than last week and 28,000 larger than the same week in 2016. August 31 stocks were reported at 575.681 million pounds in the Cold Storage report, released after Friday’s close. That was 3.75% larger than July, in line with the seasonal tendency to grow, and 5.46% lower than last August. Belly stocks were up 8.4% from July at 19.08 million pounds.


Cotton futures are steady to 10 points lower this morning. They saw mixed trade to end the Friday session, with nearby Oct 5 points higher and deferred contracts lower. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report had spec traders lowering their net long position by 6,945 contracts in Cotton futures and options. Their net position now stands at 63,339 contracts as of Tuesday. The USDA updated their AWP to 60.91 cents/lb, down 236 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for September 21 was up 15 points from the previous day at 79.50 cents/lb. China sold another 25,900 MT of cotton in Thursday’s auction of state reserves that saw 26,800 MT offered.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
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