AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are steady to fractionally lower on Friday. A private export sale of 115,000 MT was reported by the USDA to Egypt for 17/18 delivery. This morning's USDA Export Sales report indicated that the US sold 1.555 MMT of old crop corn during the week of 2/15. That was down 21.21% from the previous week but more than double the same time in 2017. New crop sales totaled 65,532 MT. The USDA expects to see a US national average yield of 174 bpa in 18/19 in their annual Ag Outlook Forum, vs. 176.6 bpa in 17/18. China imported 560,000 MT of sorghum in January according to their customs data, the most in 6 months. They have subsequently launched an anti-dumping investigation that is likely to put the brakes on imports.

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.66 3/4, unch,

May 18 Corn is at $3.74 3/4, unch ,

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.82 1/2, unch ,

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.89 1/4, down 1/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are mostly5 to 7 cents higher at midday. Soy meal futures are up $1.10/ton, with nearby soy oil 35 points in the green. A private export sale of 106,000 MT of soybeans was reported to unknown destinations this morning, with 40,000 MT for 17/18 and 66,000 MT for 18/19. The USDA showed a total of 109,144 MT in net reductions for old crop soybean export sales during the week of 2/15. That came mainly from a net reduction in sales to China of 361,734 MT and Unknown destinations of 123,200 MT. Meal sales totaled 131,922 MT, with soy oil at 42,914 MT in sales. In the annual Ag Outlook Forum, the USDA expects the US soybean yield to average 48.5 bpa in 18/19. Analyst's with Brazilian firm AgroConsult now expect to see the country's production near 117.5 MMT, up 3.4 MMT from their previous estimate.

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.38 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.49 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans are at $10.58 1/2, up 6 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $10.58 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal is at $378.00, up $1.10,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil is at $32.39, up $0.35

Wheat

Wheat futures are trading as much as a penny higher in CBT, with MPLS and KC wheat down 1 to 2 cents. All wheat export sales totaled 328,859 MT during the week that ended Feb 15. That was a 5.7% increase over the previous week but down 27.1% from the same time last year. New crop sales were tallied at 53,600 MT. Sales of 150,000 MT were reported to the Philippines. The USDA released a projection of 47.4 bpa for the US national yield, up from 46.3 bpa last year. The 18/19 carry out is expected to be trimmed 78 mbu from 17/18 to 931 mbu.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.52 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.69 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat is at $6.01 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are down 25 to 60 cents in most nearby contracts at midday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed with most front months steady to up 42.5 cents, with back months lower. The CME feeder cattle index was up 6 cents on February 21 at $148.05. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday morning. Choice boxes were down 32 cents at $218.08, with Select boxes 83 cents higher at $212.83. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter was 441,000 head through Thursday, 4,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Most cash trade has been reported at $128-$128.50 so far this week. Thursday afternoon’s Cold Storage report put beef stocks at the end of January at 499.554 million pounds. That is 2.36% more than December while nearly 7.18% lower than January 2017. Export sales for beef dropped to a MY low of 9,346 MT during the week of 2/15.

Feb 18 Cattle are at $128.000, down $0.350,

Apr 18 Cattle are at $124.875, down $0.500,

Jun 18 Cattle are at $116.600, down $0.200,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle are at $146.125, up $0.125

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle are at $148.500, up $0.425

May 18 Feeder Cattle are at $149.400, up $0.275

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are slightly lower on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 21 was $70.17, down 61 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 3 cents lower at $79.47 in the Friday AM report, with the belly the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 73 cents at $62.83. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 1,802,000 through Thursday. That is down 48,000 head from the previous week but 40,000 head more than the same time last year. Pork stocks in cold storage at the end of January totaled 567.984 million pounds. That was an increase of 15.9% over last month, and 8.35% larger than last year. That yr/yr increase came from a large jump in belly stocks over last year’s all-time low for the month of January. Export sales of pork totaled a MY high of 40,350 MT during the week of Feb 15, up 84% from the same time last year.

Apr 18 Hogs are at $71.200, down $0.075,

May 18 Hogs are at $77.375, down $0.050

Jun 18 Hogs are at $82.775, down $0.175

Cotton

Cotton futures are showing gains of 92 to 129 points on Friday. Export sales of old crop Upland cotton were reported at 399,123 RB for the week of February 15. New crop sales were shown at 177,217 RB. Cotton yield is expected to drop to 828 lbs/acre during 2018/19 according to the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum. The lower yield is expected to more than offset the more acreage to drop production 1.76 million bales to 19.5 million bales. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP was updated to 69.69 cents/lb on Thursday, 54 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index was up 150 points from the previous day on February 22 at 90.20 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton is at 81.46, up 92 points,

May 18 Cotton is at 80.76, up 129 points

Jul 18 Cotton is at 81.55, up 114 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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